Friday, January 04, 2008
Obama's success last night is not the end of the tail. It did, however, effecively narrow the race to Gore (who has 35 minutes left to decide to run),Obama (who ran as an American, not an an Afro-american), Edwards who seems to be corss breeding Huey Long and Fiorello Laguardia, and the incumbent HRC.
I am NOT trying to be funny here. These definitions are very hard t change once they are in place.
Another change last night has to do with testing the verious organizational approaches. IMO, Axelrod has discovered a new coalition of that may rival roosevelt. The believers. Last night BHO and HRC essentially ties in the party regular vote. BUT BHO won crossovers, Polls show him aa the favorite second candidate of many Repubs! I think the reasons are clear .. on faith issues he comes across as sincere (as does Huckaby). Ths means the faithfuk TRUST him on issues like the war, taxes, etc where the Rvians have misused them. This is a huge part of the Reag to Rove era Republican vote,
Where next? HRC's big advantage is Bill and I se eonkly two possible winning strategies: 1. A breakup where she shows her gones b y putting him down publicly proving her manhood or 2. an embrace where come sout and says they area team and this is a vote for back to the 90s. I would bet on #2 and that could win idf she emerges as soimething mnore than his sidekick.
Gore is the Joker. He probably can not enter the the race, but he could decide it.
Edwards, he has a good theme but he scares me. For all the charges that Romney is the robot that eat the Bush agenda, Edwards is the trial lawyer who has taken on a case, He reminds me of the attorneys who won for OJ, He ia brilinat argument presnting Redford of a man. The problem he faces is $$$$. If he loses in NH (I hope), frore on the campaign will be a media campaign. BHO has unimaginable source of money .. all I need to do is push the button on my cell phone .. right HERE and BHO gets another $25! Formodable!
HRC has lots of $$ too. We have not yet seen a "killer ad" int is campaign but I have too much respect for those people not to imgine some sort of 2 minute affair, perhaps using Andy Young or Bill gates or ?? as an endorser.
The ultimate test is the SJ sensitometer. My sense of th8insg is that BHO has a 60% of winning, HRC has 25 and John has 15. All that could change if:
Gore endorses BHO
el Qaida bombs the Bellevue Mall
Bush recognizes Cuba
BHO's membership card in the Aetheists' Association is made public
But I have a dream .....
Posted by SM Schwartz at 8:20 AM